your elementary schools are starting to tick up and at the same time you have a a good number of large live births and the piece of that of interest is 10 years ago you got a certain percentage of all the students that were born 5 years later coming into kindergarten that percentage again Tim will be exact with it was like around 70% now that percentage is in the high 80s close to 89.

two areas that really need to be taken into consideration and the first is your English language Learners um they're increasing you'll see those numbers and the space for them is decreasing and same with your special ed... how you're going to either disperse them or Silo them or move them into certain areas so that there's expansion for those two groups.

out of all the schools I'm showing here um you're you're showing 108% difference meaning you have a lot more kids that were born after the pandemic them were being born before the pandemic which is odd to say the least it's means you're live...

how could we possibly know how many kids are going to be born in 2033 or you just going by the 2033 the the kids would be born 5 years before that so they be so right right right so if we go all the way back here here yeah so there's your 2023 is the far right column I know but after we possibly no that's that that's what the purple line is I I understand that but have you met these kids that are um um I don't see the I'm I'm just trying to understand how we could possibly know because quite honestly the kids who are let's say 30 I would have expected them all to have children by now but I'm going to tell you in my house that's not happening excuse me no you're right the kids are having our kids us old people's kids are having kids much later that is true.

these projections are so highly dependent on the live births that that needs to be looked at every year because to your point if the numbers don't show up as we identifi them that'll have an impact on the live burst and I don't want to it's it's a huge qualifier well these are like I don't want to say like here's your numbers they could be totally wrong based on but as you as you just said right now your number if right now you're way above that average if you look at this purple line the last two years of live burth are actually way above that line so we're actually projecting if we were to just use the this last couple years that line would actually be higher so we're trying to be a little bit more conservative.

the further you go out you decrease the accuracy so but you still want to have an idea what's coming but you tend to make decisions more so on the fiveyear span um and then you keep updating it which will keep giving you chunks in five years the fiveyear tends to be much more accurate and the further you out of 10 it becomes less accurate it just gives you a window a Peak at what may or may not be happening.

our next conversation is around with them what are we seeing in our three element schools and where do we have space if need be to try to address the issue and not add to our already challenging budget process and situation you know we at one point we're seeing aund I think I'm doing this from memory 50 student difference in our elementary schools well that's five or six teachers that then throws you into half a million to $600 $600,000 investment if you add teachers versus if you move them where teachers already have space in their classrooms so that's part of what we're trying to stay ahead of also.

first of all in upper Southampton your map your map doesn't show the largest proposed development which is on the what we used to call Poliwag Farm the Lynch Farm on Street Road right west of east of Davisville Road that doesn't show up on here and that's proposed to be the largest development in upper Southampton it's before the Planning Commission and voted no well it's still proposed it's still proposed the developer is coming back he's not going to walk away.