a roll call Mrs franato here Mrs cron Mr gindhart here Mr godic present Mr Harline present Mrs Lynch present Dr Maguire present Mr Martin pres Mr Sadowski here eight members present thank you can we stand for the Pledge of Allegiance please a pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands one nation under God indivisible with liberty and justice God Bless America uh i m banado yes I forgot to mention uh Mrs Cron's in route okay thank you thank you um I don't have any announcements um there doesn't appear to be any Community comments um that's not us yes um so sorry the community announcements this is just a special meeting for the next meeting at 7 will there be opportunity for Community comments at the same time as well they will on um but if they have Community comments about if they have Community comments about this they would need to fill out a green card okay um we don't have the information yet so it's kind that's what I'm asking yes kind of hard to ask a question I I would assume so okay um I think that's it I think we're ready for um the presentation uh good evening board members and those in attendance uh part of the board policy requires the district to do an enrollment analysis uh periodically one of the things that we did not only to comply with the board policy but also to make sure that we are being uh efficient and effective and looking at any uh potential challenges that we may be facing right now we were seeing a significant growth in our uh to our elementary schools and then the third one uh had space and part of that also could impact uh future budgets um so we needed to know what we didn't know and have someone to do an analysis of the numbers um tonight uh Montgomery um education Consultants along with absolute Technologies and there two parts one is Bill who introduced himself who has spent uh a number of years in doing space and facility planning in the large lest School District in Pennsylvania before he retired and then also over 20 years as a school board member so he's seen both sides of the uh uh the business and then also Tim who's been with him for a number of years does technology piece so at this point uh we turn it over to uh Bill Montgomery Dr Ben before you do that please do we have a hard copy of the presentation just the next p yeah we can get you one thank you I want right uh she asked we will get print you out a a hard copy U so a natural break I have one running you'll get it before this evening that's the budget one we'll get you hard one uh before you leave tonight I'm just checking to see if this is on you can hear me okay good thank you well Tim and I would like to thank the board for giving us the opportunity to perform this uh demographic and enrollment study for the district and we especially like to thank you for giving us this additional time tonight knowing what your May and June schedules are like for us to have the special meeting for to see the actual presentation i' just like to take just a few minutes to do what I'm going to call a brief executive summary uh we started the project approximately mid January we completed it toward the end of March so was around eight or nine weeks initially we go in and we do an indepth demographic study at the same time we're compiling all the enrollment data uh working with the township we review their websites we talk to the local reers I met with a few of the local developers to get an idea on the demographic side uh the townships and most every one of us would concur that they feel that they're about 91% or more built out however there are a couple projects right now going on and Warminster has two a seven new homes being built off of York Road and plann 20 new single family homes off of Bristol uh the township has given the permit but the developer has yet to pull the permit to start building uh in upper Southampton you have 30 New Town Homes being built that should be some done sometime toward the end of 2025 they're off a street road as I said right next to the province of Southampton um we look at your enrollment projections uh and we see some interesting aspects of it we notice that presently the enrollments are kind of going up and down overall within the school district K through 12 however you'll see with Tim's presentation your elementary schools are starting to tick up and at the same time you have a a good number of large live births and the piece of that of interest is 10 years ago you got a certain percentage of all the students that were born 5 years later coming into kindergarten that percentage again Tim will be exact with it was like around 70% now that percentage is in the high 80s close to 89 so you're getting and that's an incredible number and it should be like an indication you're doing something good people are moving into the district to attend school here people are buying homes they're having children with the understanding they're going to be going to school so you went from 10 years ago at 70% kids enter in kindergarten to 89% uh again I see anything immediate for this coming September that you have to react to but two areas that really need to be taken into consideration and the first is your English language Learners um they're increasing you'll see those numbers and the space for them is decreasing and same with your special ed um they're going to need the administration and perhaps with the board members to start coming up with some thoughts as to how you're going to either disperse them or Silo them or move them into certain areas so that there's expansion for those two groups that's what I see as the primary for this coming school year other than that when you see the numbers you're going to start seeing growth that perhaps in 2 to three years or so you're going to have to give some consideration as to either changing boundaries or coming up with some other solution to how what we see could be an increase in enrollment with that said I'll introduce Tim Tim will run through the slides there's about 25 of them um when we're done we're open for any questions and as you're going along if if you see something that pops up with Tim I'm sure he doesn't mind if you just ask him then thank you [Music] good evening as Bill mentioned my name is Tim Lambert um I work for a company called absolute technology Inc um this was a actually an interesting uh project for me because I went Archbishop Wood so I'm familiar with the area um I didn't live in the school district so it wasn't I went to Catholic school cuz my mom was a Catholic school teacher for 30 years um so what I'm going to do is kind of draw you through the the whole process um starting with you know what we look at how we do it and then how the results um became what they became so I'm just going to try to walk you down the path here so a lot of this will be pretty obvious um what happens is for kindergarten um a lot of a large percentage of those kids are going to be students who were born in the district and then 5 years later um came to the school district so we look at um that whole process of the number Li births and how many go into the school district as well and then we track all that and I'm going to really spend a lot of time going in depth with that because what happens is when you have a school district such as yourselves where the students a lot of times stay throughout um a large portion of their um K12 education what happens in kindergarten is going to propagate through those 12 grades and so what happens in kindergarten really makes it understanding how it those numbers are generated really goes and plays out how your 10year project are going to go so we look at the liur um as well as the number of those Li burst who may end up coming into the school district for both kindergarten and first grade all the other grades it's kind of like a progression from grade to grade as well as a transition between schools um but there's a whole wealth of information uh that we also take into account as Bill mentioned we have demographics for uh existing um developments and then you think of like neighborhood Cycles you know older people may be retiring moving out and younger families may be coming in with students there might be migration into the area um there's new developments um then you have you know Charter Schools um parochial schools that may open or close in the area um or lose enrollment over time and you might be getting some of those students so it really comes down to looking at your whole trending model and how these different factors play into it so this is just kind of like a little chart that just shows you that there is a lot of a lot of um outside factors besides just the students who are enrolling that have an effect on your enrollment this um first thing we like to do is look at not just your school district in isolation because that doesn't really make sense um you guys the your boundaries while they stop at a certain point what happens on the other side of that road may also have an effect if people are coming in or out of the district so we look at the entire area so what we do here is we look at all the surrounding uh counties and we see as well as all the surrounding school districts and because you're right on the border with mcgomery County we included some mcgomery County school districts that were near you to try to draw comparisons what's happening are the kids moving out of those districts into yours or vice versa um as you can see um Bucks County overall has been going down um and then I put centennials Central Bucks and Council Rock um I highlighted them these each of these color ramps is individual so it just is just for that one school district they're not uh combined what I'm showing here is and you guys are actually the number one um in what we term we're looking at the number of kids prior to the pandemic and the number of Kit Li births after the pandemic and out of all the schools I'm showing here um you're you're showing 108% difference meaning you have a lot more kids that were born after the pandemic them were being born before the pandemic which is odd to say the least it's means you're live and we'll get in again I'll get into the actual trending of this but that plays a l large Factor you can see here where there was lows of 416 422 back in uh you know 2016 and now the last year the last data that point that we have is 503 so that's upwards to you know 80 some kids different now if you're getting as as Bill mentioned 80% of those 80 kids that's and I'm should I'm a math minor I should know this but let's just say it's 63 kids extra in one year and then another 63 kids the following year that would be 120 total extra that you would be getting just from those two years of live births so this is kind of where we're getting at as we start building building up looking at is this isolated or is this consistent across the area so when we look at the area you you can see Centennial here in the middle as significantly increasing I'm really only looking at the Last 5 Years and when I use the word um slightly um or it means like it was going down and then it's slightly going up in the Last 5 Years uh but you'll see Council Rock N sham they're actually their live births are going down while yours um Upper Dublin uh Central Bucks heer horham are going up so that that whole area uh must be where the young families are moving into and having kids so this is what it looks like across the three M municipalities over time and you can see back in the late 90s um that there were almost 600 kids uh live birth kids and then it went down as you can see all the way down here but then it started ramping up again and these last two years you see this is that large jump that 108% compared to the last the two years before and after the pandemic um you can see what's happening there there we go all right um this is looking at it as how these kids actually enroll in kindergarten so you see everything in blue including the last blue column here or bar here is your current kindergarten students so the ones in the orange we know those numbers we know the live births and they will be the kinder Garden students for the next four years that's the cohorts we're working with and then the red shows what our projected Li burs are for the the combined uh three three municipalities and I'll show you why that number is the way it is so if we were to look at a trend based on just the last couple years um that number would Skyrocket but if we look a little bit more you know little further out it looks like there is kind of like a more natural line that's increasing from that low Point um I think we were saying around 2016 or so all the way through so we we chose to use that that purple line as a more realistic line for your live birth as opposed to skyrocketing it and uh you know thinking that those two bars and was more probably of a post-pandemic um situation so Bill had mentioned earlier um we look at the percentage of students who are born and and then 5 years later going into kindergarten and 6 years later go into first grade the data comes in um as I have the numbers here and I'll look at them in a second but um the way that the Department of Health provides live birth information is by municipality and by month so neither of those line up directly to what um a school district really is so what we do is we take those calendar year months and we shift that to a registra a realistic School District registration months meaning September through August would represent those kids 5 years later are those kids eligible to be enrolled in kindergarten so we're not just looking at the calendar year we're looking at your registration year additionally we use ratios to identify the percentage of those municipalities going to each elementary school catchment so we you know because Warminster um you have you know War upper Southampton and iand um will are not lined up directly with your elementary schools so we're not going to We Can't assign 100% of a municipality to one school that would be uh nonsensical but if you were to look at like and I I wrote the numbers down here because they were going to become relevant um uh Ivy Land all of them go to uh McDonald and about 70% show up uh based on the Li burus and how many students uh 5 years later and that we take an average of this is the number of Li burst in that municipality this is the number that showed up five years later we're working on data coming back to 2007 uh 78 so the 2008 school year and so and we have all the so we're using a large uh data set in order to get these numbers and what we do is we actually plot every student and where they live over that course of time so we know what municip ality they lived in uh and we know what school they go to now we're we're working on the current elementary school catchments um let's see we have uh upper Southampton 100% of that goes to Davis and they average um around 125 kids a year and then Warminster 50% go to McDonald um around 46% to Will aale and Davis Around 4% but that's where your largest population of of Li burar so in the previous um five years if you look at this year the the your previous five years of kindergarten you're looking at around 300 kids live birth you know that were transitioning in that's just the the average in The Last 5 Years or hold on the average from now on is 330 so right there there's 330 just from or 30 extra kids on average just from Warminster uh the warmin so that you know that's going to be distributed between the two you know the two main schools who take almost a 50/50 breakdown of that when you look at this chart what we're looking at is those students who be were kindergarten in 20078 were also the same kids we're looking at the first grade so we're going directly across because later on you're going to see like a more diagonal as kids progress throughout the grades um the other thing we also looked that is because you had such um changes in your facilities new schools Renovations as well as a switch from half day kindergarten to kindergarten they're all factors that go into how your enrollment is a lot of times um half day kindergarten when you switch the full you're going to get more more students and they may stay as opposed to let's say they went to a parochial school that might have had kindergarten and they full day kindergarten they might have stayed there as well as new schools attract students so those two factors um were brought in to also look at that and and how those how what happened to those numbers after those thing those events heard and then you also see sorry I'll go back real quick this one here is uh the result of the pandemic so the pandemic was essentially shut down the schools in March of 2020 so we're always looking at data from October 1st of each school year so the first school year that the the pandemic numbers would be affected would be the 2021 school year as you can see a lot less students chose to enroll uh as Bill uh said one of the things um that is skyrocketing here or increasing significantly in the last couple years is your English language Learners um as you can see they're going up this does and doesn't have a direct effect on it has more of effect on your space needs and staffing needs really um because if it's a constant Trend it would be played out in the in the model so but this was important because it also has if you start looking at your Capac capity and your utilization of your buildings using that extra space um you know can have a direct effect on how the space is utilized and where this where where what kind of space you have available for your regular ed students which is also um similar with the special ed autistic support so the as students um there obviously there's two ways uh they're educated either um within the the school district or through an APS or or uh you know non non-public School uh meaning the out of out of district schools um so that's where you see the two columns on the left we're just looking at supplemental um autistic in the chart on the left as opposed to itinerant so the itinerant you'll see in the second com from the right um are the students who don't require like the the more advanced um needs of uh the supplemental students and they're almost all always handled in-house oops I just accidentally hit that um so in total you'll see that the numbers have been going up over time and this is indicative across other school districts um this is actually the El population as well is um is also you know showing up in a lot of different school districts this is the same data on the left hand side as as shown in the previous slide uh just in graph form where you can see the numbers going up uh the orange representing that you're out of District the students who were sent uh to a specialized school as opposed to being handled in house I did I want to Note One error um on the bottom right for the itinerant that's actually 2223 not 2324 um I had that wrong in the chart so it it listed it wrong so that's liur and El and special ed now we start looking at the actual enrollments and your trending there so similar to what we did with li bur we do with enrollment across the different counties across the different school districts within the county um you can see Centennial there in the yellow uh as its enrollment going down we'll we'll go into uh this more detail when we look at the actual projections we have these numbers for Centennial as well but you'll see I just want you to this is also good if you ever need to reference something um you can say okay this is how we're we're doing compared to other school districts whether we're going up or down um so Central Bucks obviously is showing a was showing a decline over time so is Council Rock So Bucks County as a whole with over the last I don't know 16 years has gone down uh 10,000 students so it is across the board it's just where it's occurring um is slightly different so this is a similar map to what we showed before but before where we're showing live burst now we're showing the enrollment Trends and here you can see uh Centennial is stable um meaning I'm looking at the last five years we just discussed that the last two years the last two years of data is really skyrocketing here um but uh for live burst but enrollment is pretty much stable meaning there's no drastic changes if you're going down you're going down at a steady rate if you're going up you're going up at a steady rate next thing I'm going to get into is going to show you a lot of maps I just literally changed these a little just because um verse the the presentation you have in your hand it's just a little bit easier to to explain some of these uh prior to you know just the the order in which they're shown so um I'm sure you all familiar with your own School District but this kind of shows and we we put colors that we hope would pop out on the presentation um to make it a little easier for uh you and and the audience to see them but uh this shows the catchments and where the schools are located so you'll see up um in the blue you have Willowdale um green McDonald and uh red is Davis and then we the two Middle School schools in the high school reside um that's so that's the and then I'm going to show you this is where the Middle School draws from so you can see how it kind of cuts through this little area here has no students I believe it's um what's the yeah it's it's it's is that the retirement home I can't remember maybe okay thank you um so the you know so having this line over here even though it shows red and it looks like Davis is a split pattern uh feeder pattern um officially they do but I don't think there's any students that live there so it's not you wouldn't you might not necessarily see Davis kids going to lot College um this is uh a map showing where the developments are I don't know Bill if you wanted to discuss this at all yeah there as mention there were a few new developments uh up in that top left hand corner is the one that's 1250 West Bristol Road that's the one that there's 20 new single family homes approved by the Warminster Township but again the permits have yet to be picked up um a couple of the other ones because we do plug them in even though they've been built and they were only Built a few years ago and the way a development works it takes we project like eight years for it to really be filled out it doesn't like just get done in 2025 and then if there's 20 single family homes you're going to have X amount of students it we don't see it working that way it works that Progressive over a period of time the houses get sold families move in some kids some have students of school age some don't and they have children and eventually move in so the the ones that are like Rose Point duer Stone Ridge they have been built and they're occupied but you are getting to see students progressively coming in from there the um the other one that's the 30 Town Homes is called Forest Park um that's going to be the closest one to development and they should be done in around 2025 but again you won't get a large impact immediately it'll take a period of time and historically we don't see the same amount of number of students coming from a single family or a town home as compared to a single family home um then Forest Park is down there then bethana excuse me if I'm interrupting I don't mean to but I'm going to um Cobblestone where is that at I can see here that's in the vicinity of Willowdale but exactly where is it which one is that Cobblestone Cobblestone Cobblestone let let me look on this do you want me to zoom in on it yeah on a map Lynch is that where Le was yes I think that's it that's where what was where Le was okay and Henry Avenue is that where it is it is was lry school she had okay I'm just curious because will yeah it's it's right it's exactly where the L school was yeah okay so I'm under the impression that 33 or 37 homes have already been built and that's people are living in them they are I didn't know are you telling me that there's a possibility of additional home in that area no now what we're saying is that even though they've been built a few years back correct you start you get the impact from them over a period of years and up to as as high as 10 usually around eight students will start parents moved in folks moved in children are being born and then they'll start coming to the school okay I appreciate that's why we don't go back much past 10 years for developments but we went back that because they're four five six years back but I'm under the impression it was either 33 homes or 37 a single area yeah no additional homes they've all been sold and you're saying the impact of these homes that people are currently living in is going to have an impact as we go on meeting that they will have more children there's 36 homes that were built 36 and and they're complete but it doesn't necessarily mean that they're zeroed out as far as having students that could come into the school system all right how many students are coming from these developing right now what can he tell them that I can pull it up that's a I'm sorry if I'm interrupting but this is in my particular area I can give you that data later I mean we have it but I'd have to yeah we right now I'm showing on the screen the current current students and where they live in that development that helps okay thank you yes and the other one the last one I was pointing at was the breana that is a new development but it's tagged to be 55 plus yes I've heard about that yeah done there you go Charlie hit the wrong button all right so what we're looking at now is um and I just arbitrarily not well not necessarily arbitrarily I divided up the school district into like what I call Neighborhood planning units or mpus um to make it a little bit easier to you know slice and dice and see what's happening around the district instead of just looking at elementary school catchments so um using different you know natural boundaries or uh major highways or something like that or just even continuous um neighborhood features I created you know and and I use names um as close as that area is some of them may or may not be familiar with uh to you but this is where the green color shows where there's more the enrollments going up and red shows where the enrollment uh the number of students enrolling is going down or who are enrolled I should say so you can see um up here on the on the east side is where you're getting some growth east and north where um west of uh York Road and around county line down here is not showing as much uh growth for the number of students living there uh this is again this is actually showing the just the distribution of the where the neighborhoods are and where the schools are and this is just showing their names um a little bit easier that's why I kind of move things around now we'll get into um the actual projections so the way you would read this it's a lot of numbers but you you read top left to bottom right so every because the grades are to the right so the first grade become next year's second grade become next year's third grade and so so on and so forth so um it the way the reason we like to use these color ramps is because it gives you a good understanding when you're looking just kind of glancing from the upper left to the bottom right you can see how the trend is so you can one of the things you want to note right here is there's you know a lot of kids that in 12th grade right now that'll be graduating out and that is going to you know obviously make your enrollment go down because you're graduating out a large po a large cohort and then you can see over here this is the 2020 21 school year where you had a low number based on the pandemic and low number of kindergarten and that's that's going to propagate through and you know stay low you'll continue to get trending wise students but um because it started low it's not necessarily going to fully recover um but then you look down here and there's two large the the 2021 and the 20 20 22 uh calendar year which had those large live births those those students will be showing up in 26 27 and 27 28 so you'll see down here where there's like a little bubble that's going to go through of a large number you know more students than normal so overall we we we do this both top down and bottom up um we look like I said we look at the the neighborhoods um as well as you know the impact of specific specific um factors in those neighborhoods such as new development such as um you know migration and then we we roll those up to the school level and then we do projections on the school level then we also do projections at the district level and work down because when you work with projections the larger your data set the larger your number the more accurate your projection is going to be so you know if we're looking at 10 students and we're trying to project five years out that's really difficult because if you only have 10 students just being off by one student is 10% wrong if you're in if you're sitting here at 5,000 students and you're 10 students off that's a lot different you have a lot less of a margin of error um so therefore we we do it in both directions to see you know how how they play out um and then the other thing we do is we look at when you look at your um enrollment that's 13 years of live births from kindergarten to 12th grade so we add up all those live births and we say how does that compare to your enrollment meaning if you look up here I'm going to start all the way on the left to 201910 um where you're slightly below 6,000 students and your live births let's just say is around 7,000 that that 7,000 kids are the same kids that could have would be in school at that time so it's a direct comparison of the 7,000 kids that were born between in those 13 years that's the 6,000 that are currently in that in the school district at that time so it kind of gives you an understanding of again are these projections correct um and you can see as it going down down down down down it's it's kind of you there's certain points like here you can see it moving a little oddly when it gets closer it it means there's more kids who are showing up from those from those live birth cohorts and uh one thing I noticed is around here um you're looking at new schools you're looking at uh a jump and E population things like that where the number where the LI burs are getting closer to the number of kids who are actually um enrolling and then you'll see it kind of shoot back up as the um live births um the LI burst will kind of smooth out and and um stabilize getting into each individual school um so Davis is primarily from upper Southampton um and that has a consistent live births so you'll see over time um those numbers are going to remain relatively stable um going through McDonald's probably going to have the most impact because it pulls 50% of its um 50% of its students are from the Warminster Township and that L that's where the largest jump and live births are so as those that jump in line Birth start hitting kindergarten and then first grade as I mentioned before even if it's you know a 30 if it's a 30 kid G kid difference and you're getting 80% of those 30 extra kids over six years K through five that's you know six uh I don't know 180 kids right um extra so person you know for that school or whatever um or split between two because 50/50 but it just that kind of shows you why the numbers are going up and you're going to see something similar at Willowdale because it's 45% of um Warminster Township then the Clinger and Law College um that's direct relationship between the the transitioning fifth graders into the uh receiving sixth grade at those both both location so we look at you know what's the standard drop off or ratio of students so we're really just looking at what those fifth grade classes and moving in using the same ratio as the past that are going to be showing up in sixth grade yes ma'am can I just so I'm looking at um enrollment for McDonald yep and you're saying uh 2023 is not 808 and then 2033 is 968 how could we possibly know how many kids are going to be born in 2033 or you just going by the 2033 the the kids would be born 5 years before that so they be so right right right so if we go all the way back here here yeah so there's your 2023 is the far right column I know but after we possibly no that's that that's what the purple line is I I understand that but have you met these kids that are um um I don't see the I'm I'm just trying to understand how we could possibly know because quite honestly the kids who are let's say 30 I would have expected them all to have children by now but I'm going to tell you in my house that's not happening excuse me no you're right the kids are having our kids us old people's kids are having kids much later that is true um we're again we're I'm just I'm just asking I'm not being fresh I'm just no we're absolutely fine we're looking at this trend line and we're just saying because they're they're holding out man and they don't move out no they don't they have to come back so I guess the question is how accurate are the life birth predictions and and what are they modeled on because that's what all this is hinging on right yeah I'm comfortable with these with these numbers but you'll actually I have a note here and it's in the it's in the full report is because these projections are so highly dependent on the live births that that needs to be looked at every year because to your point if the numbers don't show up as we identifi them that'll have an impact on the live burst and I don't want to it's it's a huge qualifier well these are like I don't want to say like here's your numbers they could be totally wrong based on but as you as you just said right now your number if right now you're way above that average if you look at this purple line the last two years of live burth are actually way above that line so we're actually projecting if we were to just use the this last couple years that line would actually be higher so we're trying to be a little bit more conservative could that line be higher because of covid it could be but this is if you if you see me go I'm not trying to be no if you if you see me go back to here um that's why we do this where you guys are you guys are actually abnormal where you're at 108% comparing your pre-o to postco well there was nothing open but a lot of most most school districts actually um they haven't caught up to their their pre their pre pandemic numbers okay well should they they they have by now but when you compare the the the front the two years prior to two years after most are below or equal to that 100% you guys are way above that um which is odd so it could be just that one thing that's why we didn't want to take that that post pandemic number and use that because that would be unrealistic okay um that's why we're a little bit more uh you know evenly spaced across that this is kind of how this is perfect because this is why I'm walking it down the path is to to say I don't want to just give you the numbers and say here they are I wanted to show you how we got the numbers but this could definitely be wrong and you'll see the qualifier is it's really important that because once the department of health comes out with the numbers if they're much different than ours because the majority majority of your enrollment is based on that live birth number yeah that's what has to be keyed in and and reviewed every year okay it's reviewed every year yeah I mean well they're two years in the rear right now like right now their 2022 numbers are preliminary now when you look at their preliminary versus their actual they're usually off by like one or two kids so I'm not too worried about that but they still they haven't brought they haven't published the 2023 even in preliminary status yet okay um but it is a fiveyear difference between you're actually when you're actually going to see they don't they they come back they don't leave um I just think I I just think kids I shouldn't call them kids young adults in their 30ish um they're having children much later that's I mean I'm not a birth specialist but I'm going by the 30th that I know um they're waiting longer and they're and they're not having as big as families as old people like I am um they're not having as many children oh I can agree yeah I I def agree I work numbers yeah right again thank you though for your patience if if I if I had that purple line go more horizontal you'd be questioning that why all these numbers are going up why do you have it going horizontal I listen thank you I appreciate your patient so so a couple of things so essentially using historical data and statistical modeling for the future to anticipate what our birth rates are going to be and then basing the enrollment on that correct okay if we go to back to slide 23 which is the enrollment history with like birth and you see the partial bell curve that has a narrowing that one that has a narrowing gap between the blue line and our line what it is showing us essentially is that the individuals who are moving into the district and having children are at a much more constant rate because I see that Gap is seems to be pretty constant that they are keeping their children within the district and not placing them in competing districts or you know or private schools or whatever have you so really that's really kind of the most important line that we are looking at is the variation of that blue line to the Top Line showing us at what rate our children are continuously enrolling within our classroom and then following that through to the higher grades absolutely correct these are the actual numbers here so you'll see back in you know 2012 you were getting 64% of the LI burst in 201920 you got 92% of the LI burst now admittedly we're comparing Li burst to kindergarten students who moved in who were not born here would also be counted in that percentage because we're looking at the number of kids who are in kindergarten so that also plays into a factor of your migration that's why we also look at these English language Learners because if they're moving in and between age zero and five they're going to show up in kindergarten but not show up in your live birth numbers okay so just because um livee birth preds have been going on for a long time give me one second I'm sorry we're going to run out of time so I think you want to make sure to get questions and cover anything else you think is important uh because we're gonna run out of time but go ahead Mr Kart I just want to give him a warning yeah no makes sense um just historically how accurate have life birth predictions been and are they using the same model so we can look at these projections and feel relatively confident in them I want to say they're pretty accurate in the sense of when you look at the the trend but I can't I don't know specifically you know like when the Phillies wi the World Series this year because they're doing so well can't predict that we're going to have more kids being born um so you'll see there are you know there is an up and down when you look at enroll at Li over time um we just have to do our best to say okay this is the trend that's happening and we're looking really at the average Li burs you're going to get you know next year it might be a low and then a high then a low then a high you're never going to be there's never a dead-on linear you know progession from one to the other but on average we expect this to be the live birth moving forward um there's no real consistency we've seen this before where you know you'll have like a a 10year up or I'm sorry a 10e to go like this every 10 years it just is like a wave and we've seen that it's amazing we have no idea I assume it's like they're stall starter homes and then people move out and then new families move in as a a starter home or something like that but um here I was looking at that but there's not really because it's kind of it was kind of like it went down then it went up a little then it went down um and you can if if you if you ignore these first couple ones it kind of looks like it's a little bit going into a roller coaster and then if if this red line was the play out it'd go up and then down like this um and that's again why we wrote Li bursts are very important because next year if the 2023 numbers come in up here that means a lot more kids are going to be showing up um we were we're taking into account assuming that this post pandem these post-pandemic numbers are not part of the ex actual Trend and that's why we went a little bit further um into the history to get this purple line the board members one of the things you need to and I'm surprised you didn't mention it Tim but Bill knows this you see the in the chart you'll see a demarcation between also five and 10 year and the farther you go out you decrease the accuracy so but you still want to have an idea what's coming but you tend to make decisions more so on the fiveyear span um and then you keep updating it which will keep giving you chunks in five years the fiveyear tends to be much more accurate and the further you out of 10 it becomes less accurate it just gives you a window a Peak at what may or may not be happening uh for us uh the issue becomes you'll see uh larger numbers starting to creep up and our elementary schools which is the issue that also Dr best brought forward when he brought the presentation and trying to deal with planning which has an impact on Staffing uh trying to look at which school in the district may have space so if you have to shift students to another District where there's space so you're not adding on necessary staff which adds additional costs uh when you may not have to so a cost avoidance process so right now our next conversation is around with them what are we seeing in our three element schools and where do we have space if need be to try to address the issue and not add to our already challenging budget process and situation you know we at one point we're seeing aund I think I'm doing this from memory 50 student difference in our elementary schools well that's five or six teachers that then throws you into half a million to $600 $600,000 investment if you add teachers versus if you move them where teachers already have space in their classrooms so that's part of what we're trying to stay ahead of also uh we're going to R time anything I guess Miss right um You you have the numbers was real quick go down to the high school and you can see how it's going to the graduating seniors is going to drop that number significantly and then um it's going to have a number of years where it's going to have low enrollment and then start picking up a little um as those elementaries go to Middle go to high school one question if I might I know it's running out time first of all in upper Southampton your map your map doesn't show the largest proposed development which is on the what we used to call Poliwag Farm the Lynch Farm on Street Road right west of east of Davisville Road that doesn't show up on here and that's proposed to be the largest development in upper Southampton it's before the Planning Commission and voted no well it's still proposed it's still proposed the developer is coming back he's not going to walk away it's not SEC my question finally is do you you've been doing this for looks over for a long time do you measure the statistical accuracy of what your projections have been over the studies that you have done going back to the initiation of your company yeah the answer is yes and you what yeah it's funny you should say that I'm defending my dissertation in July for that exact same thing do we have a copy is that included in your report it's literally at 300 Pages now I do not think you want that a summary I I don't want summary is wonderful you know summary how accurate have you been um it really depends on the school district I will say in general we're we're we're much better than PD's projections um on a more stable environment such as this uh I would say we accurate it's when you have but then again um I I just quick sorry Mrs Lynch has a question we just need to excuse me when oh I'm sorry I'm sorry um we we're we're within you know every year as Dr benon said um the further out you go the less accuracy you're going to get so you're looking at you know over the course of 10 5 years ideal we're looking at you know 3 3 and a half% difference um across the district is normal um we usually hit around that around 3% at 5 years if that helps thank you Mr thank you I know this report is data driven and I accept that but I'd like to ask you for one Mr Townson per se have you reviewed the comprehensive plan no the comprehensive plan of the county or of up Mr tant has a comprehensive plan I did look at their compr open space that could turn into apartments homes Etc very limited but it could have an impact uh number two did you uh did you actually Deep dive into how many CH future children come from apartments or single homes we yes we do that with the enrollment projections you did that with the enrollment what I was starting to say earlier was we get a larger percentage from a single family home than we would from a town home then we would from an apartment but they'll all come up under your enrollment numbers wherever they're living if there was a new apartment being built then that would be a a different type of projection we do that and then we project it as the apartment fills up then we would project it overall okay can can I safely say that the children that the new children coming into the district or born here whatever whatever um would be less from the single homes and more from the apartments is there analysis on that fact singly by itself if you don't have it it's okay I think it's just I'd have to look but you're absolutely right we do look at um because when we see a large concentration on like one dot that's obviously like an a par um so we do look at those apartments specifically but then we roll it up into the other numbers because you want to do as as I said you want to do projections on as large a number as you as you can and still be accurate so it'd be hard to look at we we do have um numbers for every neighborhood uh I think there's like 30 different planning areas that we do look at the actual numbers and then those numbers over time and how they're progressing which would include those apartments and single family homes um because you'd be looking at one area that has all single family homes as a cohort that you're looking at that cohort individual thank you thank you um I think we need to wrap things up Dr B yeah no I just said thank you that we're going to have to transition to the actual board meeting if you have any additional questions you can shoot me an email and I can send it to them um for that like I said next step is we'll be meeting with them to look at what else is this telling us to try to get ahead of any challenges that may be facing in the elementary school level thank you thank you thank you so much okay I don't have a a copy of special meeting is adjourned and we will Dr Ben do you want time between yeah get you five minutes y can we have five minutes and we'll be right back